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Safety & Alignment

Safety Case

A written argument that the risk is adequately handled, with evidence.

Definition

A structured argument that a system is safe enough for its intended use, made of explicit claims, the evidence supporting them, and the assumptions being relied on. Borrowed from safety-critical engineering and now written for frontier models.

The useful property is falsifiability: because claims and assumptions are written down, they can be attacked individually. External scrutiny then targets the weakest link rather than the whole document, which is the point of the format.

The most useful thing a reader can do with one is attack the assumptions, because that is where safety arguments are typically weakest: an assumption that a capability is absent, or that monitoring would detect a behaviour, is often the load-bearing claim.

How people use it
Reviewing a model release.
"What is the claim, what is the evidence, and what would have to be true for this to be wrong?"
Worked example

Finding the load-bearing assumption

Reviewing a safety case before approving a deployment.

For each claim, ask what has to be true for the evidence to support it, then ask how that was established. The weak link is usually a statement about what the system cannot do, which is substantially harder to evidence than what it can.

Sources
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